What’s Ahead: Weekly Macroeconomic Calendar for September 8 – September 12, 2025

The upcoming week looks relatively calm when it comes to macroeconomic events. However, Thursday stands out as a day that could bring serious volatility, especially for the EUR/USD pair, given the release of several significant data. On this day, keep a close eye on two major indicators: the ECB interest rate decision and the US consumer price index (CPI). These releases will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and provide insight into the future actions of central banks.

Monday, September 8

China:
● 3:45 a.m. GMT: Trade Balance (USD) (August). Actual figure: 102.33B / Exp: 99.40B / Previous: 98.24B. Stronger-than-expected numbers highlight solid export performance in China, which may boost overall market sentiment. Direct impact on major currency pairs is likely to be limited.

Germany:
● 06:00 a.m. GMT: German Trade Balance (July). Actual figure: 14.7B / Expected: 15.7B / Previous: 14.9B. Slight miss, but data remains healthy. No significant effect on the euro is expected.

Tuesday, September 9

Eurozone:
● 10:00 a.m. GMT: Eurogroup Meeting. Economic discussions may influence sentiment indirectly, but no direct impact is expected without hard data.

United States:
● 8:30 p.m. GMT: API Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles. Previous: 0.622M. Early oil inventory figures could influence energy prices and commodity-linked currencies.

Wednesday, September 10

United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: PPI (Month-over-Month) (August). Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.9%. PPI acts as a leading inflation indicator. A strong release could fuel inflation expectations and strengthen the USD.
● 2:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: 2.415M. This data has a direct impact on oil prices. Rising inventories tend to pressure oil lower, while a decline supports prices.

Thursday, September 11 — THE BIG DAY!

Eurozone:
● 12:15 p.m. GMT: Deposit Funds Rate (September). Forecast: 2.00% / Previous: 2.00%.
● 12:15 p.m. GMT: Interest Rate Decision (September). Forecast: 2.15% / Previous: 2.15%. Any changes — or even subtle hints about future moves — could send the EUR surging or plunging.
● 12:45 p.m. GMT: ECB Press Conference. This event is often more impactful than the rate announcement itself. Traders will closely analyze the tone and wording for policy clues.

United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (August). Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.2%.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (August). Forecast: 2.9% / Previous: 2.7%. US inflation data directly affects expectations for Fed policy. If the numbers are higher than expected, it may raise the chances of further tightening and boost the dollar.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT — Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 234K / Previous: 237K. The figure shows the state of the labor market. If it comes in higher than expected, it could weaken the dollar.

Friday, September 12

United Kingdom:
● 6:00 a.m. GMT — GDP (Month-over-Month) (July). Forecast: 0.0% / Previous: 0.4%. GDP data can influence the pound. Weak or negative results may cause GBP to fall.

Germany:
● 6:00 GMT — German CPI (Month-over-Month) (August). Forecast: 0.1% / Previous: 0.1%. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany’s inflation data can offer extra insight into the region’s overall CPI trends.

Tips for Traders

● Be extra cautious on Thursday: With the ECB meeting and US inflation data, EUR/USD may experience very high volatility. Avoid trading without a clear plan or consider lowering your position size.
● Don’t trade the news “heads-on”: Entering the market right at the news release is very risky. Prices often make sharp but false moves. Wait for the market to process the news and show a clearer direction.
● Watch key technical levels: News drives momentum, but support and resistance levels often act as “magnets” or barriers for the price. Combine fundamental and technical analysis when making decisions.
● Listen to comments carefully: After the ECB decision, pay close attention to the press conference. What central bankers say is often more important than the numbers themselves.